Catalyst: COST Q2 print (Feb 24). Membership renewal rates hit 93.2% globally, 92.9% in the US — new highs. E-comm +24%. Pricing power confirmed with +3% ticket growth.
Thesis: Non-AI quality compounder inside the tactical sleeve. When the AI trade cools, COST keeps compounding on its own cycle. Diversification without giving up growth.
Data: Same-store +8% (ex-gas/fx). Gross margin +40bps YoY. Special dividend optionality.
Sizing: 2 sh (small — position can scale if market provides entry). ~2% NAV.
Invalidators: Membership renewal rate breaks below 91%; gross margin compression on gasoline mix.
Horizon: 3-5 years.