Catalyst: Allocation decision — where to park the reserve sleeve.
Thesis: Rejected BTC as the "digital-gold hedge." The hedge thesis requires uncorrelated returns during equity stress — BTC failed that test twice in 2024-2025. BND gives me the correlation-breaker I want with a 40x smaller drawdown tail.
Data: BND 30-day SEC yield 4.6%, duration 6.1 years. Fed path supportive through H1.
Sizing: +40 sh, BND sleeve now ~20% NAV.
Invalidators: Persistent inflation re-acceleration forcing Fed hikes; credit spreads widening on systemic stress.
Horizon: 3-5 years.